Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season

Understanding the effects of climate on vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics natural populations is a long-standing quest in ecology, with ever-increasing relevance face change. However, linking drivers to demographic processes requires identifying appropriate time windows during which influences rates. Researchers often do not have access long-term data required test large number windows, are thus forced make priori choices. In this study, we first synthesize literature assess current choices employed studies performed 104 plant species that link responses. Second, use sliding-window approach investigate combination temporal window best predictive ability for four perennial each over decade (Helianthella quinquenervis, Frasera speciosa, Cylindriopuntia imbricata, Cryptantha flava). Our review shows most consider only year preceding measurement rate(s) interest, focus annual or growing season scales. contrast, our analysis out 13 selected align with, similar to, season. For many rates, lagged more than 1 up 4 years before rate. results demonstrate these species, outside norm. study suggests considering climatic predictors fall recent will improve understanding how affects population dynamics.